← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 58% | 60% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.16 | fair |
| Heracles win | 18% | 15% | 5.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ (og) | Mike te Wierik · FC Utrecht |
| 52' | 🟨 | Sofyan Amrabat · FC Utrecht |
| 59' | 🟨 | Ramon Leeuwin · FC Utrecht |
| 78' | 🟨 | Samuel Armenteros · Heracles |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Sébastien Haller · FC Utrecht |
| 90' | 🟥 | Tim Breukers · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.39 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 529.00 | 863.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 3.02 |
| elo | 1582.28 | 1521.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.14 | 16.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 73.10 | 50.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| league points | 21.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | 0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.56 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |