← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 58% | 49% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 28% | 4.29 | value: +18% |
| FC Twente '65 win | 19% | 23% | 5.05 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -4' | 🟨 | Lasse Schöne · AFC Ajax |
| 20' | 🟨 | Hidde ter Avest · FC Twente '65 |
| 66' | 🟨 | Stefan Thesker · FC Twente '65 |
| 80' | 🟨 | Nick Viergever · AFC Ajax |
| 82' | 🟨 | Mateusz Klich · FC Twente '65 |
| 86' | 🟨 | Mitchell Dijks · AFC Ajax |
| 89' | 🟨 | Chinedu Ede · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nick Viergever · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | 🟥 | Nick Viergever · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Mateusz Klich · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 132.00 | 193.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| 3.00 |
| 5.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.52 | 2.15 |
| elo | 1556.71 | 1854.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.16 | 7.99 |
| eye test v1 | 1.36 | 1.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 67.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.81 |
| league points | 21.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 63.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.48 | 1.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 7.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| squad age | — | 20.50 |
| state index | -0.18 | 1.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |