← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 41% | 39% | 2.39 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 32% | 32% | 3.04 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.60 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 62' | 🟨 | Mart Dijkstra · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 83' | ⚽ | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · Vitesse |
| 89' | 🟨 | Yuning Zhang · Vitesse |
| 90' | 🟥 | Stijn Spierings · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Navarone Foor · Vitesse |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 710.00 | 193.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Het Kasteel |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 1.55 |
| elo | 1408.65 | 1580.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.43 | -15.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| league points | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.33 |
| skill v1 | -1.00 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.43 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.28 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |