← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 45% | 43% | 2.18 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 28% | 30% | 3.51 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Kevin Mayi · NEC |
| 12' | 🟨 | Ashraf El Mahdioui · ADO Den Haag |
| 12' | ⚽ (og) | Tyronne Ebuehi · NEC |
| 44' | ⚽ | Mohamed Rayhi · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1989.00 | 1043.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion de Goffert |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.49 |
| elo | 1466.72 | 1476.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.09 | -26.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.53 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.70 |
| league points | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.93 |
| skill v1 | -0.76 | -0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.44 | -0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.82 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |