← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 68% | 70% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 17% | 5.24 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 13% | 13% | 7.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Sam Larsson · SC Heerenveen |
| 42' | 🟨 | Pelle van Amersfoort · SC Heerenveen |
| 42' | 🟨 | Ryan Koolwijk · SBV Excelsior |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | Nigel Hasselbaink · SBV Excelsior |
| 48' | ⚽ | Sam Larsson · SC Heerenveen |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jurgen Matheij · SBV Excelsior |
| 69' | 🟨 | Kevin Vermeulen · SBV Excelsior |
| 79' | ⚽ | Sam Larsson · SC Heerenveen |
| 86' | 🟨 | Anouar Hadouir · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 192.00 | 131.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.58 |
| elo | 1592.68 | 1405.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.73 | 15.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.20 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| league points | 26.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 66.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 37.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | -1.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.12 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | -1.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |