← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Fri, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 57% | 62% | 1.71 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.06 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 19% | 15% | 5.17 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Mimoun Mahi · FC Groningen |
| 61' | 🟨 | Bryan Linssen · FC Groningen |
| 71' | ⚽ | Alexander Sørloth · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 130.00 | 191.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.22 |
| elo | 1560.20 | 1439.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.00 | 24.93 |
| eye test v1 | 0.62 | -0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.71 |
| league points | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 66.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 38.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 0.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | -1.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 24.84 | 26.63 |
| state index | 0.31 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | -1.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |