← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 44% | 43% | 2.23 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 30% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Gervane Kastaneer · ADO Den Haag |
| 29' | ⚽ | Nacer Barazite · FC Utrecht |
| 41' | 🟨 | Hector Hevel · ADO Den Haag |
| 43' | 🟨 | Tom Beugelsdijk · ADO Den Haag |
| 63' | 🟨 | Thomas Meissner · ADO Den Haag |
| 75' | 🟥 | Tom Beugelsdijk · ADO Den Haag |
| 80' | 🟨 | Giovanni Troupee · FC Utrecht |
| 83' | ⚽ | Sébastien Haller · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1037.00 | 522.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.31 |
| elo | 1490.48 | 1568.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.62 | 11.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | 0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 71.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.62 |
| league points | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.29 |
| skill v1 | -1.02 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| state index | -0.44 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |