← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 56% | 58% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.22 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 21% | 20% | 4.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Stanley Elbers · SBV Excelsior |
| 11' | ⚽ | Robert Mühren · AZ |
| 25' | 🟨 | Wout Weghorst · AZ |
| 26' | ⚽ (pen) | Nigel Hasselbaink · SBV Excelsior |
| 29' | 🟨 | Kevin Vermeulen · SBV Excelsior |
| 34' | ⚽ | Muamer Tanković · AZ |
| 65' | ⚽ | Hicham Faik · SBV Excelsior |
| 72' | 🟨 | Fredy · SBV Excelsior |
| 76' | ⚽ | Stijn Wuytens · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 124.00 | 824.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| 2.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.91 |
| elo | 1400.46 | 1651.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.58 | 16.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | 0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| league points | 14.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.71 |
| skill v1 | -1.37 | 0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| state index | -0.53 | 0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.99 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |