← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Fri, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 51% | 47% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.58 | fair |
| NEC win | 22% | 24% | 4.39 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | Lerin Duarte · Heracles |
| 49' | 🟨 | Thomas Bruns · Heracles |
| 83' | ⚽ | Samuel Armenteros · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 854.00 | 1981.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.08 | 2.06 |
| elo | 1510.78 | 1477.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.12 | 14.28 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.61 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| league points | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | -1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |