← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ed Peter Janssen, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 52% | 52% | 1.87 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 32% | 3.88 | value: +24% |
| Roda JC win | 23% | 16% | 4.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Christian Kum · Roda JC |
| 50' | ⚽ | Nestoras Mytides · Roda JC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Martin Milec · Roda JC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Daryl Werker · Roda JC |
| 64' | ⚽ | Loris Brogno · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 65' | 🟨 | Marcos Gullon · Roda JC |
| 81' | ⚽ | Kenneth Dougall · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 86' | 🟨 | Adil Auassar · Roda JC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 696.00 | 179.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Het Kasteel |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.22 |
| elo | 1415.28 | 1413.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.72 | 29.17 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | -0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| league points | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 40.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 0.77 |
| skill v1 | -0.83 | -1.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.05 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.09 | -1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |