← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 42% | 40% | 2.33 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 31% | 31% | 3.11 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.65 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Simon Tibbling · FC Groningen |
| 15' | 🟨 | Nicolai Brock-Madsen · PEC Zwolle |
| 39' | ⚽ | Tom Van Weert · FC Groningen |
| 48' | 🟨 | Danny Holla · PEC Zwolle |
| 77' | ⚽ | Albert Rusnák · FC Groningen |
| 86' | ⚽ | Mimoun Mahi · FC Groningen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bram Van Polen · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1274.00 | 117.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 4.12 |
| elo | 1536.42 | 1541.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.67 | -3.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.70 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| league points | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.13 | 24.33 |
| state index | 0.18 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |