← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 69% | 68% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 22% | 5.15 | value: +13% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 12% | 10% | 8.01 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Hicham Faik · SBV Excelsior |
| 14' | ⚽ | Hicham Faik · SBV Excelsior |
| 24' | 🟨 | Jurgen Matheij · SBV Excelsior |
| 25' | ⚽ (pen) | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · Vitesse |
| 40' | 🟨 | Kevin Vermeulen · SBV Excelsior |
| 56' | 🟨 | Bas Kuipers · SBV Excelsior |
| 73' | ⚽ | Adnane Tighadouini · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 178.00 | 117.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | GelreDome |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 2.33 |
| elo | 1576.75 | 1394.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.85 | -21.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.48 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.65 |
| league points | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.30 | -0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.23 | -0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | -0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |