← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 46% | 47% | 2.13 | fair |
| NEC win | 27% | 28% | 3.55 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.66 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Jay-Roy Grot · NEC |
| 27' | ⚽ | Jay-Roy Grot · NEC |
| 36' | ⚽ | Jay-Roy Grot · NEC |
| 51' | ⚽ | Enes Ünal · FC Twente '65 |
| 59' | ⚽ | Dario Đumić · NEC |
| 79' | ⚽ (og) | Mikael Dyrestam · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1975.00 | 117.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion de Goffert |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 3.66 |
| elo | 1466.56 | 1569.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.81 | 7.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.83 | 1.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| league points | 12.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.54 |
| skill v1 | -1.05 | 1.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.00 |
| state index | -0.68 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |