← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Fri, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 36% | 37% | 2.71 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 34% | 31% | 2.83 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.31 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 47' | ⚽ | Jari Schuurman · Willem II Tilburg |
| 52' | 🟨 | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
| 57' | 🟨 | Rochdi Achenteh · Go Ahead Eagles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Go Ahead Eagles | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 298.00 | 177.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | De Adelaarshorst |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 1.90 |
| elo | 1392.64 | 1422.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.05 | 6.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.80 |
| league points | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.56 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 0.85 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | -0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.68 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.43 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |