← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 42% | 48% | 2.31 | value: +10% |
| FC Utrecht win | 31% | 24% | 3.12 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.69 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟥 | Ramon Leeuwin · FC Utrecht |
| 22' | ⚽ | Hidde ter Avest · FC Twente '65 |
| 26' | ⚽ | Richairo Zivkovic · FC Utrecht |
| 76' | 🟨 | Robbin Ruiter · FC Utrecht |
| 81' | 🟨 | Mark van der Maarel · FC Utrecht |
| 90' | 🟨 | Giovanni Troupee · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 111.00 | 508.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| 1.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.42 |
| elo | 1571.73 | 1564.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.68 | 13.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.72 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 68.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.62 |
| league points | 19.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.33 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |