← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 54% | 61% | 1.80 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.06 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 22% | 18% | 4.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Derrick Luckassen · AZ |
| 39' | 🟨 | Marcos Gullon · Roda JC |
| 39' | ⚽ | Abdul Ajagun · Roda JC |
| 59' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · AZ |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ridgeciano Haps · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 172.00 | 811.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Parkstad Limburg |
| 1.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.62 |
| elo | 1409.45 | 1637.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.78 | -21.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.66 |
| league points | 9.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.67 |
| skill v1 | -0.90 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.44 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |