← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 80% | 85% | 1.21 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 10% | 7.37 | fair |
| NEC win | 6% | 5% | 15.12 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax |
| 24' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax |
| 37' | 🟨 | Julian von Haacke · NEC |
| 37' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax |
| 39' | 🟨 | Wojciech Golla · NEC |
| 52' | 🟨 | Mikael Dyrestam · NEC |
| 55' | ⚽ | Bertrand Traoré · AFC Ajax |
| 57' | ⚽ | Lasse Schöne · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 172.00 | 1969.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 1.75 |
| elo | 1846.22 | 1469.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.27 | 11.07 |
| eye test v1 | 0.99 | -0.95 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.70 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| league points | 27.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.69 | -0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.20 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 21.79 | — |
| state index | 1.28 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |