← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 55% | 56% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.88 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 20% | 20% | 4.89 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Sander Duits · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 17' | ⚽ | Jarchinio Antonia · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 38' | 🟨 | Lerin Duarte · Heracles |
| 68' | ⚽ | Samuel Armenteros · Heracles |
| 84' | ⚽ | Samuel Armenteros · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 841.00 | 292.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| 1.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 2.39 |
| elo | 1515.27 | 1397.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.51 | 6.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| league points | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.92 |
| skill v1 | 0.26 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |