← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 51% | 48% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.86 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 24% | 26% | 4.09 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Hans Hateboer · FC Groningen |
| 42' | ⚽ | Edouard Duplan · ADO Den Haag |
| 54' | ⚽ | Tom Van Weert · FC Groningen |
| 71' | 🟨 | Edouard Duplan · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 110.00 | 1022.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion |
| 1.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.24 | 2.92 |
| elo | 1518.32 | 1500.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.21 | -16.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| league points | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | -1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |