← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 42% | 38% | 2.31 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 31% | 34% | 3.12 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.67 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Loris Brogno · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 26' | ⚽ | Stanley Elbers · SBV Excelsior |
| 30' | ⚽ | Fredy · SBV Excelsior |
| 60' | 🟨 | Stanley Elbers · SBV Excelsior |
| 65' | 🟨 | Thomas Verhaar · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Nigel Hasselbaink · SBV Excelsior |
| 73' | ⚽ | Denzel Dumfries · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 83' | 🟨 | Denzel Dumfries · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michel Breuer · Sparta Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 110.00 | 688.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.63 |
| elo | 1385.02 | 1424.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -47.12 | 28.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.73 |
| league points | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.33 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | -1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| state index | -1.39 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | -1.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |