← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 59% | 60% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.25 | fair |
| Heracles win | 18% | 16% | 5.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 57' | ⚽ | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · Vitesse |
| 61' | ⚽ | Brahim Darri · Heracles |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Samuel Armenteros · Heracles |
| 78' | 🟨 | Sheran Yeini · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 158.00 | 828.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | GelreDome |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.87 |
| elo | 1588.61 | 1501.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.65 | -2.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | — |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.70 |
| league points | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 0.82 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.01 | -0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |