← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Richard Liesveld, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 66% | 72% | 1.47 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 4.84 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 13% | 10% | 7.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Fortes · SBV Excelsior |
| 47' | ⚽ | Yassin Ayoub · FC Utrecht |
| 54' | ⚽ | Nacer Barazite · FC Utrecht |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ryan Koolwijk · SBV Excelsior |
| 83' | ⚽ | Stanley Elbers · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 494.00 | 97.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.31 |
| elo | 1559.87 | 1389.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.81 | -46.22 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.10 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| league points | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 0.91 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.41 | -1.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |