← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 57% | 58% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.98 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 19% | 18% | 5.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Calvin Verdonk · PEC Zwolle |
| 88' | 🟨 | Bram Van Polen · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1253.00 | 157.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -2.20 |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.91 |
| elo | 1548.05 | 1420.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.62 | 6.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | -0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.00 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.72 |
| league points | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 0.73 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 23.78 | 27.01 |
| state index | 0.35 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |