← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ed Peter Janssen, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 36% | 31% | 2.69 | fair |
| NEC win | 36% | 38% | 2.71 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.51 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 59' | 🟨 | Taiwo Awoniyi · NEC |
| 78' | ⚽ | Tom Van Weert · FC Groningen |
| 83' | ⚽ | Ferdi Kadıoğlu · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1954.00 | 96.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion de Goffert |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 4.33 |
| elo | 1469.90 | 1517.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.55 | -21.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.84 | -0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.59 |
| league points | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.82 |
| skill v1 | -0.98 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.29 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |