← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 37% | 48% | 2.64 | value: +27% |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 34% | 26% | 2.86 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Kevin Jansen · ADO Den Haag |
| 45' | 🟨 | Funso Ojo · Willem II Tilburg |
| 56' | ⚽ | Tom Beugelsdijk · ADO Den Haag |
| 60' | 🟨 | Mike Havenaar · ADO Den Haag |
| 75' | 🟨 | José San Román · ADO Den Haag |
| 80' | 🟨 | Tom Beugelsdijk · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1008.00 | 157.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 1.95 |
| elo | 1494.57 | 1420.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.98 | 2.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.83 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.78 |
| league points | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.56 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.91 |
| skill v1 | -1.11 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| state index | -1.09 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | -0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |