← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 57% | 59% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.19 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 20% | 18% | 4.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Queensy Menig · PEC Zwolle |
| 4' | 🟨 | Randy Wolters · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 14' | 🟨 | Danny Holla · PEC Zwolle |
| 42' | ⚽ | Sander Fischer · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 48' | 🟨 | Queensy Menig · PEC Zwolle |
| 48' | 🟨 | Rochdi Achenteh · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 57' | ⚽ | Mustafa Saymak · PEC Zwolle |
| 61' | 🟨 | Marcel Ritzmaier · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 70' | 🟨 | Joey Groenbast · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 88' | 🟥 | Sander Fischer · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wouter Marinus · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Theo Zwarthoed · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 90' | ⚽ | Danny Holla · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1247.00 | 272.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 2.33 |
| elo | 1525.93 | 1388.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.17 | -0.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.33 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| league points | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 9.04 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | -0.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.56 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.05 | -0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |