← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Edwin Van de Graaf, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 61% | 61% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.43 | value: +7% |
| NEC win | 17% | 15% | 5.71 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Michael Heinloth · NEC |
| 35' | ⚽ (og) | Joris Delle · FC Utrecht |
| 45' | 🟨 | Reagy Ofosu · NEC |
| 62' | ⚽ | Ferdi Kadıoğlu · NEC |
| 86' | 🟨 | André Fomitschow · NEC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Patrick Joosten · FC Utrecht |
| 90' | 🟨 | Richairo Zivkovic · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.37 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 487.00 | 1948.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| elo | 1564.13 | 1465.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.57 | -12.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | -0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.89 | 60.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.74 |
| league points | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.87 | -0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.78 | 3.11 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.15 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |