← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 45% | 50% | 2.17 | value: +9% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 29% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.71 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Thomas Meissner · ADO Den Haag |
| 18' | 🟨 | Rens Van Eijden · AZ |
| 39' | 🟨 | Ludcinio Marengo · ADO Den Haag |
| 77' | 🟨 | Danny Bakker · ADO Den Haag |
| 87' | ⚽ | Robert Mühren · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1002.00 | 790.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.58 |
| elo | 1502.76 | 1626.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -50.07 | -68.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.59 |
| league points | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.55 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | -1.06 | -0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |