← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 41% | 40% | 2.37 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 31% | 29% | 3.15 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.49 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Simon Tibbling · FC Groningen |
| 66' | ⚽ | Thom Haye · Willem II Tilburg |
| 75' | ⚽ | Mimoun Mahi · FC Groningen |
| 85' | ⚽ | Bartholomew Ogbeche · Willem II Tilburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hans Hateboer · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 150.00 | 89.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | — |
| elo | 1409.10 | 1529.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.95 | 15.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 53.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.59 |
| league points | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.71 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | -1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.96 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | -0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |