← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 86% | 88% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 9% | 10.12 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 5% | 3% | 21.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 48' | ⚽ | Hakim Ziyech · AFC Ajax |
| 79' | 🟨 | Lasse Schöne · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | 🟨 | Henrico Drost · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 150.00 | 89.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.47 | — |
| elo | 1846.57 | 1390.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.60 | -43.93 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.58 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.10 | 60.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.65 |
| league points | 23.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.30 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 4.11 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 21.80 | — |
| state index | 1.24 | -1.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |