← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Fri, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Richard Liesveld, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 63% | 64% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.49 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 15% | 13% | 6.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 75' | 🟨 | Marcos Gullon · Roda JC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Tom van Hyfte · Roda JC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Martin Milec · Roda JC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 88.00 | 149.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 2.99 |
| elo | 1569.87 | 1398.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.66 | -13.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.62 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| league points | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 0.70 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.74 | -0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |