← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 49% | 50% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.75 | fair |
| NEC win | 25% | 25% | 3.86 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Janio Bikel · NEC |
| 38' | ⚽ | Navarone Foor · Vitesse |
| 42' | 🟨 | Wojciech Golla · NEC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · Vitesse |
| 63' | 🟨 | Dario Đumić · NEC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Guram Kashia · Vitesse |
| 88' | ⚽ | Dario Đumić · NEC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Adnane Tighadouini · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1941.00 | 144.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion de Goffert |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| elo | 1463.51 | 1598.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.11 | 3.16 |
| eye test v1 | -1.28 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.88 | 55.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| league points | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.56 |
| skill v1 | -1.08 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.54 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |