← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Reinold Wiedemeijer, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 40% | 41% | 2.44 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 32% | 32% | 3.01 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Rico Strieder · FC Utrecht |
| 31' | 🟥 | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
| 34' | 🟨 | Giovanni Troupee · FC Utrecht |
| 47' | 🟨 | Dries Wuytens · Willem II Tilburg |
| 65' | 🟨 | Robin Van der Meer · FC Utrecht |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sébastien Haller · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | — | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | — | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | — | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 143.00 | 479.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| elo | 1416.85 | 1556.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.07 | -11.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.33 | 66.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| league points | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.71 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.67 | 3.38 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.89 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |