← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ed Peter Janssen, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 38% | 39% | 2.59 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 35% | 34% | 2.81 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Kevin Jansen · ADO Den Haag |
| 37' | ⚽ | Edouard Duplan · ADO Den Haag |
| 47' | 🟨 | Danny Bakker · ADO Den Haag |
| 74' | 🟨 | Tyronne Ebuehi · ADO Den Haag |
| 85' | 🟨 | Thomas Meissner · ADO Den Haag |
| 86' | ⚽ | Mitchell Paulissen · Roda JC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Daryl Werker · Roda JC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Edouard Duplan · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 143.00 | 994.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Parkstad Limburg |
| 2.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| elo | 1397.34 | 1504.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.03 | -56.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.67 | 62.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| league points | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.11 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | -0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.33 | 3.44 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| state index | -1.09 | -1.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |