← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 42% | 41% | 2.34 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 32% | 30% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.72 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Sander Duits · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 44' | ⚽ | Yaw Yeboah · FC Twente '65 |
| 89' | ⚽ | Bersant Celina · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | 🟥 | Jarchinio Antonia · Go Ahead Eagles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Go Ahead Eagles | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 264.00 | 82.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | De Adelaarshorst |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1413.18 | 1574.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.77 | 8.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.89 | 53.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| league points | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.56 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | -0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.78 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.78 | 23.31 |
| state index | -0.07 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |