← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Fri, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior win | 40% | 39% | 2.46 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 33% | 35% | 2.92 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Danny Holla · PEC Zwolle |
| 48' | ⚽ | Queensy Menig · PEC Zwolle |
| 81' | 🟨 | Anouar Hadouir · SBV Excelsior |
| 88' | ⚽ | Django Warmerdam · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 81.00 | 1238.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.20 |
| elo | 1403.04 | 1513.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.95 | -1.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.62 | 50.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.58 |
| league points | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 0.67 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.38 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.77 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |