← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 47% | 54% | 2.09 | value: +12% |
| PEC Zwolle win | 28% | 22% | 3.44 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Philippe Sandler · PEC Zwolle |
| 10' | ⚽ (pen) | Mateusz Klich · FC Twente '65 |
| 28' | 🟨 | Mateusz Klich · FC Twente '65 |
| 36' | 🟨 | Dejan Trajkovski · FC Twente '65 |
| 40' | ⚽ | Youness Mokhtar · PEC Zwolle |
| 77' | ⚽ | Enes Ünal · FC Twente '65 |
| 84' | ⚽ | Django Warmerdam · PEC Zwolle |
| 86' | 🟨 | Peet Bijen · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 76.00 | 1233.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| 2.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| elo | 1562.19 | 1509.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.23 | -13.47 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.58 |
| league points | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 0.63 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.63 | 3.29 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.50 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |