← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 65% | 61% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.82 | fair |
| NEC win | 15% | 18% | 6.67 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Mohamed Rayhi · NEC |
| 39' | 🟨 | Mohamed Rayhi · NEC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Karim El Ahmadi · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 79' | ⚽ | Nicolai Jørgensen · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 90' | ⚽ | Michiel Kramer · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1934.00 | 534.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion de Goffert |
| 2.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 8.40 |
| elo | 1468.37 | 1725.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.68 | 20.15 |
| eye test v1 | -1.02 | 1.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.29 | 63.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.90 |
| league points | 9.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 3.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.45 | 0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 7.78 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 7.00 |
| state index | -0.56 | 1.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |