← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior win | 43% | 42% | 2.28 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 30% | 28% | 3.29 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.53 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 56' | ⚽ | David Boysen · Roda JC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ryan Koolwijk · SBV Excelsior |
| 83' | 🟨 | Ard Van Peppen · Roda JC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Abdul Ajagun · Roda JC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 76.00 | 137.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| 1.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| elo | 1415.59 | 1384.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.90 | -40.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.86 | 54.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.65 |
| league points | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | — |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.38 |
| skill v1 | -0.40 | -0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.86 | 3.38 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.61 | -1.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.43 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |