← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 67% | 69% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | 4.89 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 13% | 13% | 7.42 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Davy Klaassen · AFC Ajax |
| 33' | 🟨 | Kevin Jansen · ADO Den Haag |
| 52' | ⚽ | Bertrand Traoré · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 988.00 | 137.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| 1.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 6.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 3.34 |
| elo | 1509.10 | 1848.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -53.77 | 17.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | 1.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.78 |
| league points | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 2.38 |
| skill v1 | -0.65 | 1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.63 | 6.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.60 |
| squad age | — | 21.78 |
| state index | -0.93 | 1.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |