← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ed Peter Janssen, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 69% | 68% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 20% | 5.36 | value: +10% |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 12% | 12% | 7.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Sofyan Amrabat · FC Utrecht |
| 41' | ⚽ | Giovanni Troupee · FC Utrecht |
| 44' | 🟨 | Willem Janssen · FC Utrecht |
| 53' | ⚽ | Rico Strieder · FC Utrecht |
| 56' | 🟨 | Marcel Ritzmaier · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 65' | ⚽ | Richairo Zivkovic · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 472.00 | 257.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| elo | 1547.99 | 1407.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.89 | 30.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.43 | 54.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| league points | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | -0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.14 | 3.88 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.27 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |