← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 42% | 43% | 2.34 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 30% | 28% | 3.23 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.47 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | ⚽ | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
| 65' | ⚽ | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
| 69' | ⚽ | Craig Goodwin · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 90' | ⚽ | Thomas Verhaar · Sparta Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 653.00 | 136.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Het Kasteel |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| elo | 1401.55 | 1415.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.97 | -10.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.12 | 59.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| league points | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 0.75 |
| skill v1 | -0.05 | 0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.63 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.38 | -0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | 0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |