← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 59% | 61% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.17 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 18% | 15% | 5.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Nicolai Jørgensen · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 18' | 🟨 | Freek Heerkens · Willem II Tilburg |
| 76' | ⚽ | Renato Tapia · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 87' | 🟨 | Dico Koppers · Willem II Tilburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bilal Başaçıkoğlu · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 123.00 | 520.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| 5.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 8.00 |
| elo | 1421.61 | 1719.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.89 | 21.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | 1.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | -0.85 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.86 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.88 |
| league points | 6.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 3.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | 0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.57 | 7.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 7.40 |
| state index | -0.53 | 1.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |