← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Richard Liesveld, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 45% | 43% | 2.18 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 29% | 30% | 3.38 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.69 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Guus Til · AZ |
| 39' | ⚽ | Michel Breuer · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 41' | 🟨 | Rens Van Eijden · AZ |
| 43' | 🟨 | Derrick Luckassen · AZ |
| 58' | 🟨 | Kenneth Dougall · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 82' | 🟨 | Denzel Dumfries · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Denzel Dumfries · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟥 | Denzel Dumfries · Sparta Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 640.00 | 762.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Het Kasteel |
| 3.00 |
| 4.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 2.67 |
| elo | 1396.10 | 1668.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.97 | -27.12 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.14 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.58 |
| league points | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 2.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.57 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.35 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |