← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 41% | 43% | 2.38 | fair |
| FC Twente '65 win | 32% | 28% | 3.01 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.66 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Enes Ünal · FC Twente '65 |
| 31' | 🟨 | Tim Breukers · Heracles |
| 36' | 🟨 | Bersant Celina · FC Twente '65 |
| 39' | 🟨 | Joey Pelupessy · Heracles |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | Mateusz Klich · FC Twente '65 |
| 42' | ⚽ | Samuel Armenteros · Heracles |
| 64' | 🟨 | Mateusz Klich · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Peet Bijen · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 793.00 | 62.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| elo | 1506.76 | 1562.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.34 | 29.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.44 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.65 |
| league points | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.71 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.44 | 4.86 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.00 |
| state index | -0.63 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | -0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |