← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 71% | 72% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 21% | 5.32 | value: +14% |
| FC Utrecht win | 11% | 6% | 9.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Kevin Conboy · FC Utrecht |
| 34' | 🟨 | Davy Klaassen · AFC Ajax |
| 37' | 🟨 | Willem Janssen · FC Utrecht |
| 40' | 🟨 | Kevin Conboy · FC Utrecht |
| 47' | ⚽ (og) | Ramon Leeuwin · AFC Ajax |
| 51' | 🟨 | Yassin Ayoub · FC Utrecht |
| 69' | 🟨 | Sofyan Amrabat · FC Utrecht |
| 71' | 🟨 | Nacer Barazite · FC Utrecht |
| 75' | 🟨 | Sébastien Haller · FC Utrecht |
| 78' | 🟨 | Rico Strieder · FC Utrecht |
| 79' | ⚽ (pen) | Lasse Schöne · AFC Ajax |
| 87' | ⚽ | Hakim Ziyech · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mark van der Maarel · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 123.00 | 459.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| 5.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.40 |
| elo | 1846.20 | 1550.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.43 | -23.07 |
| eye test v1 | 1.53 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.78 | 66.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.65 |
| league points | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.29 | 0.86 |
| skill v1 | 1.30 | 0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.11 | 3.17 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 21.93 | — |
| state index | 1.45 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | 0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |