← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 43% | 43% | 2.26 | fair |
| NEC win | 29% | 28% | 3.36 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Kevin Mayi · NEC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Janio Bikel · NEC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Tom van Hyfte · Roda JC |
| 78' | ⚽ | Kevin Mayi · NEC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adil Auassar · Roda JC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 122.00 | 1919.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Parkstad Limburg |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1394.67 | 1458.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.26 | -19.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.57 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| league points | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.43 | 0.86 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | -1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.43 | 3.17 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | -1.59 | -0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | -0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |