← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Edwin Van de Graaf, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 43% | 39% | 2.28 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 30% | 32% | 3.30 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Bas Kuipers · SBV Excelsior |
| 9' | 🟨 | Xandro Schenk · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 11' | ⚽ | Sander Duits · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 35' | 🟨 | Danilo Pantić · SBV Excelsior |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Sam Hendriks · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 41' | 🟨 | Sander Duits · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 57' | 🟨 | Danilo Pantić · SBV Excelsior |
| 57' | 🟥 | Danilo Pantić · SBV Excelsior |
| 71' | 🟨 | Terell Ondaan · SBV Excelsior |
| 72' | ⚽ (pen) | Sam Hendriks · Go Ahead Eagles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Go Ahead Eagles | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.56 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 243.00 | 61.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | De Adelaarshorst |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 9.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1391.14 | 1432.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.45 | 2.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.14 | 64.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| league points | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.43 |
| skill v1 | -1.02 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.86 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.65 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |