← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Fri, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 45% | 49% | 2.19 | value: +8% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 29% | 26% | 3.37 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.69 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Ted Van de Pavert · PEC Zwolle |
| 28' | 🟨 | Tom Beugelsdijk · ADO Den Haag |
| 47' | ⚽ | Tom Trybull · ADO Den Haag |
| 51' | ⚽ | Youness Mokhtar · PEC Zwolle |
| 65' | 🟨 | Danny Bakker · ADO Den Haag |
| 65' | 🟨 | Tom Trybull · ADO Den Haag |
| 65' | 🟨 | Edouard Duplan · ADO Den Haag |
| 70' | ⚽ | Youness Mokhtar · PEC Zwolle |
| 79' | 🟨 | Wilfried Kanon · ADO Den Haag |
| 81' | 🟨 | Tom Trybull · ADO Den Haag |
| 81' | 🟥 | Tom Trybull · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1217.00 | 972.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | MAC³PARK Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.80 |
| elo | 1501.20 | 1517.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.39 | -36.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | -0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.33 | 61.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.68 |
| league points | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.29 | 1.43 |
| skill v1 | -0.72 | -0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.67 | 3.71 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| state index | -1.23 | -0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |