← Eredivisie 2016-17 · Sun, Sep 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 54% | 60% | 1.79 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.98 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 21% | 17% | 4.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Richairo Zivkovic · FC Utrecht |
| 67' | 🟨 | Nacer Barazite · FC Utrecht |
| 72' | 🟨 | Rico Strieder · FC Utrecht |
| 77' | 🟨 | Willem Janssen · FC Utrecht |
| 80' | 🟨 | Kenneth Dougall · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 80' | ⚽ | Nacer Barazite · FC Utrecht |
| 82' | 🟨 | Stijn Spierings · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Craig Goodwin · Sparta Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 452.00 | 633.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| elo | 1543.05 | 1403.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.86 | 51.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 64.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.68 |
| league points | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.67 |
| skill v1 | 0.78 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.81 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.06 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |